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NFL Week 5 Quarterback Rankings

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Tampa, Florida, USA; Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes (15) drops back to pass against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in the third quarter at Raymond James Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Nathan Ray Seebeck-USA TODAY Sports

A strong performance on Sunday Night Football elevatedPatrick Mahomesto the top ranking for 2022, and hes had the top career-based projection for multiple years running.

Geno Smithbreaks into the top five for the season and has moved all the way up to 20th in career-based projection from last season to the start of this one.

The biggest fallers of the week wereTrevor LawrenceandMatthew Stafford, both were in the top 10 a week ago but now sit outside of the top 20.

For these rankings, I utilize a statistical technique called Bayesian Updating to solve the sample size issues. It is a method PFF has used many times in the past, notably when we looked at anumber ofdifferentdraft classesand why theNew York Jetsneeded todraft a quarterbackin 2021.

With Bayesian Updating, we can use the dynamics of the historical quarterback market and individual results to project theirPFF gradesandexpected points added(EPA) per play. Even in a single season, there can be drastic differences in sample sizes for quarterbacks. This means that comparing unadjusted rate stats side by side can give too much credit to those who arent a big part of their offense and too little credit for those who dominate as their teams No. 1.

You can find details of how Bayesian Updating is implementedhere, including a primer on how we build a posterior belief (or projection) based on historical quarterback results and then update the beliefs (projections) for each quarterback with their actual NFL results on a play-by-play basis.

Before I dive straight into the PFF analytical quarterback rankings, Ive provided some visualizations to give proper context to how these quarterbacks performed in PFF grade and EPA per play and some important data splits that show the potential for regression moving forward.

First, quarterbacks such asKenny Picketthave very few plays to base these numbers on, so their performances should be seen as highly volatile going forward.

Geno Smithhas the best PFF offensive grade and solidly ranks in the top five in efficiency. Quarterbacks whose efficiency most exceeded our grading wereLamar Jackson,Patrick MahomesandTrevor Lawrence. On the flip side,Davis MillsandAaron Rodgershave graded much better than their expected points-based efficiency.

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